Hillary Has Found her Voice

And so have I….

In her New Hampshire victory speech, Hillary Clinton said,

I come tonight with a very, very full heart. I listened to you and in the process, I found my own voice....I felt like we all spoke from our hearts...

Well so have I -- I have found my voice.

Tim Rutten reminded me when he wrote recently in the Los Angeles Times,

Obama's, obviously, was the stunning victory speech after Thursday's Iowa caucuses; he's been riding a wave of enthusiasm ever since. Even the sort of seasoned political analysts inclined to cynicism recognized that the junior senator from Illinois had delivered the sort of soul-stirring, landscape-altering address that deserves to be reckoned in a rhetorical lineage that includes, most recently, memorable public speeches by John and Robert Kennedy, Martin Luther King Jr. and Ronald Reagan.

SNIP

There were, in fact, two things about Obama's speech that remain as remarkable as the campaign heads toward Tsunami Tuesday on Feb. 5 as they were in the moment of delivery. The first is that it was, at bottom, a discussion of race in which race never was mentioned. The second is that both red and blue America seem to have heard the same thing -- something worth noting in this bitterly partisan era. Thus, even a reflexively Republican commentator such as Bill Bennett praised the speech for appealing "to the better angels of our nature."

Race is America's perennially unfinished business, but what Obama did in Iowa was to offer a new way of talking about it, and it is that -- more than any policy he yet has advanced -- that marked him as a candidate of change. Race remains the great American problem, but it's a problem whose contours have been dramatically reshaped in recent years.

SNIP

America is no longer a country of the dream deferred but of the dream realized in unexpected, but perplexingly uneven, ways. Obama, the 46-year-old product of both Harvard Law and community organizing in the Chicago projects, speaks in a new emotional vocabulary that recognizes both achievement and need. It's a language he has in common with younger voters, who thus far are turning out in huge numbers.

Senator Clinton's voice is not my own.

I prefer the voice of that other Senator: the one who fires me up and gets me ready to go!

U.S. Corporations vs. The American People

"Get Back, Get Back! Populist Democrats & Republicans - Whoever You are!"

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce used to be a notably bipartisan trade association with a limited budget and limited influence. But no longer.

It has hugely increased its political fund-raising and developed new ways to spend money on behalf of pro-business candidates. The chamber has become a significant force in state and national politics and more and more aligns itself with GOP priorities. In the last presidential cycle, 2004, it invested $60,000,000.

Therefore it comes as no surprise that it's a player in 2008. This year's election campaign occurs against a background of mounting popular concern over the condition of the economy beset by a seemingly endless, revenue-draining, occupation of Iraq. A weak record of job creation, the sub-prime mortgage crisis, declining home values and other problems have all helped make the economy a major campaign issue.

Alarmed at the increasingly populist tone of the 2008 political campaign, the president of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Tom Donohue, is issuing fiery promises to spend unprecedented millions of dollars to defeat candidates deemed to be anti-business. Their targets are candidates using the code words

• restore the middle class
• reverse global warming
• rescind tax cuts for the rich
  
• excessive bonus pay for corporate chief executives
• unfettered globalization of workers

And the like. That includes Senators John Edwards, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and Governor Mike Huckabee - three democrats and one Republican.

With this investment, Donahue expects Democrats

. . . will be gone from power for at least 40 years. . . . I'm concerned about anti-corporate and populist rhetoric from candidates for the presidency, members of Congress and the media. It suggests to us that we have to demonstrate who it is in this society that creates jobs, wealth and benefits -- and who it is that eats them . . . . We plan to build a grass-roots business organization so strong that when it bites you in the butt, you bleed.

There is special concern about Republican Governor Huckabee. Club for Growth President Pat Toomey has targeted 'Two-Buck Huck':

Over the past ten months, Governor Huckabee’s embrace of his liberal economic record as governor and his populist, protectionist rhetoric on the campaign trail has only confirmed the Club for Growth’s original assessment. Huckabee himself admits that he is a ‘different kind of Republican,’ a code word for more government involvement, less personal freedom, and greater dependence on government bureaucrats.

Huckabee is proud of his tax hikes, his spending increases, and his regulatory expansions as governor, and he has not indicated that he would govern any differently as president. Nominating Mike Huckabee for president or vice-president would constitute an abject rejection of the free-market, limited-government, economic conservatism that has been the unifying theme of the Republican Party for decades.

Mention of class war used to be forbidden in the Republican playbook. This year the dogs will be unchained.

War? What war?? The Economy Trumps Iraq in US Primaries???

The implications from this mythology is that Republicans may be given a boost from Bush's semblant improvements in Iraq.
My Hitch-Hiker's Guide to the Myths and Realities of the Primaries

Reuters reports:

The Iraq war, once the key issue in the U.S. presidential election, is taking a back seat to the economy as voters fret over a possible recession . . . . Polls in Iowa, the state that kicked off the process for choosing a president on Thursday, showed people pushing the war lower on their list.

The other night, I heard establishment pundit David Gergen say,

The entrance polls in Iowa certainly suggested that Iraq has receded ... as the central issue in the campaign, partly because the 'surge' is working and fatalities are down, and partly because the economy is getting worse. . . .

The latest numbers on jobs that came out (on Friday) ... are being interpreted by investors as yet another sign we may be heading toward a recession.

Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster who argued Iraq's diminishing role in the election would be positive for Republican candidates, argues

It means that domestic issues, from what we can tell today, are likely to play a relatively greater role in determining votes. Anything that drives Iraq down the agenda helps Republicans because a majority of Americans think it was a mistake to have gone into Iraq in the first place, and there's very little that Republicans can say at this point to persuade people otherwise.

Tom Rosenstiel, director of the Project for Excellence in Journalism at the Pew Research Center, which tracks media coverage of the war, goes along:

At this moment in time, the daily accounts [of the occupation] have subsided, the daily concern over 'Is the situation getting worse?' has eased off, and people are beginning to think about things closer to home.

Not! Not the way I see it.

The point is, we are in the Thermidorian Reaction of the Neo-Conservative revolution.

For historians of revolutionary movements, the term Thermidor has come to mean the phase in some revolutions when the political pendulum swings back towards something resembling a pre-revolutionary state, and power slips from the hands of the original revolutionary leadership.

At this point, we are at the same juncture (parallel - not exact) where we were when Lyndon Johnson announced on 31-Mar-68 that he was not running for re-election. Now, as then, the issues, pro- and con- the Iraq Occupation/Vietnam War are/were well settled.

Take a look at some clips from this late December Los Angeles Times Poll.


The vision of a protracted occupation of indefinite duration in Iraq eats at the soul and confidence of Americans. Its continuing and spiraling expense cast doubt over our being able to fund solutions to the myriad domestic problems and challenges which our nation faces. Internationally, Iraq remains an unmitigated public relations disaster.

For Americans, the problem of Iraq is no longer at issue. Because verdict is in. It is settled that Iraquagmire has been the worst self-inflicted shock to the American republic since the civil war. The terminal punctuation of the Busheney chapter in American history looms palpably in sight. Beginning in 378 days from now, Americans can begin the demolition of Bush's warfare state and his doctrine of preventive war. If they cannot annul this Overton break with the past, they can at least hope for its systemic repudiation.

It is this determination defines the profile of 'change' that animates voters in this primary season.

Be the Change Agent, New Hampshire!

USA Today/Gallup (January 4-6)

Obama 41
Clinton 28
Edwards 19

CNN/WMUR/University of New Hampshire:

Obama: 33%
Clinton: 33%
Edwards: 20%

American Research Group:

Obama: 38%
Clinton: 26%
Edwards: 20%

Concord Monitor:

Obama: 34%
Clinton: 33%
Edwards: 23%

Rasmussen:

Obama: 37%
Clinton: 27%
Edwards: 19%

We're all fired up and ready for you to go!

Daylight Between the Decider and the Terminator

In my once-a-week Friday effort to find and publish something positive about Republicans, I have always been tempted to say something about the sliver of daylight between the governor of my state and the lock-step national G.O.P.
This interview between Marc Hujer of Spiegel OnLine provides such an opportunity. In these excerpts, my reader(s) will note that despite Arnold Schwarzenegger's efforts to maintain the semblance and trappings of loyalty with the national Republican party, splits are apparent:

SPIEGEL:

Governor, after seven years of George W. Bush's administration, America seems to have lost a lot of its influence in the world. The country appears depressed about how the war in Iraq has turned out, insecure about the threat from China and fearful of a coming recession. Has America lost its beat?

SCHWARZENEGGER:

No. America is strong and in very good shape. As always, Americans are able to weather the challenges that come our way because we're diverse, resilient and optimistic people. Of course important decisions need to be made in the near future in terms of rebuilding America, but that's why the nation's eyes are on the upcoming election.

SPIEGEL:

It sounds like you think that with Bush, a lot of things have been neglected the past years?

SCHWARZENEGGER:

The upcoming election gives us the opportunity to act on many important issues and decide what needs to be done for America's future. For example, our infrastructure is aging; we need to reform our healthcare system and our education system; we need new and innovative ways to stimulate our economy. Important questions need to be answered, like how do we reduce our dependence on fossil fuel (more...) when we know such fuel is eventually going to run out? How do we fight global warming while improving our economy? These are all issues I'm dedicated to addressing in California as well.

SPIEGEL:

America has, in the last few years, tried to lead through its military might -- with a very questionable outcome.

SCHWARZENEGGER:

America has a very proud military history and our troops are some of the best in the world. I think it is very important to look at how we deal with the military, how we use diplomacy and how do we make ourselves seem as though we are not just flexing our muscles because we have more weapons than anyone else. We need to be wise about that. We also need to ensure that we balance spending between military and domestic programs.

SPIEGEL:

Your own party seems to be reluctant to follow your suggestions. Republicans are particularly skeptical of your healthcare reform in California. Many have derogatorily referred to it as socialism.

SCHWARZENEGGER:

My approach relies on the market, which is a more Republican idea, but we try to fix the dysfunctional elements of the market because they are what makes the system a disaster for people. And I have no doubt there are many, many Republican voters who like our approach and will support it when we get it to the ballot. The polls show that's the case.

SPIEGEL:

Your plan is not much different from the one Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton -- including her mandate idea -- has suggested.

SCHWARZENEGGER:

Everyone has to be insured, and our plan provides only a few ways you can opt out of that. We believe the insurance companies have to be responsible for insuring everybody -- no matter their age or medical history. Our plan also focuses heavily on prevention and on reducing medical costs.

SPIEGEL:

So you want to change emphasis from what is generally considered to be a Republican agenda to one that is more Democratic -- fixing healthcare, the environment, rebuilding the infrastructure and stimulating the economy?

SCHWARZENEGGER:

Not at all. These issues impact everyone regardless of political party. I don't focus on whether I'm pushing a Republican agenda versus a Democratic one -- I'm pushing the people's agenda. I think next fall, voters should look at the substance of the presidential candidates' positions to ultimately make their choice in the voting booth. The economy, education, infrastructure, healthcare, energy, the environment -- these are the domestic issues that need to be addressed to push America forward, and these are the issues that I'm focused on in California.

SPIEGEL:

Still, it seems like your party isn't willing to follow your lead. Republicans have been extremely reluctant to jump into the fight against global warming.

SCHWARZENEGGER:

There are a lot of Republicans that are for the environment and working to combat climate change. We have Governor Charlie Crist in Florida who has jumped on board and become a partner of ours. And Governor Jon Huntsman from Utah joined the Western Climate Initiative with California, Arizona, Oregon, Washington and New Mexico to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 15 percent below 2005 levels by 2020. And in Washington D.C., the Senate recently passed an amendment that calls for a National Low Carbon Fuel Standard -- modeled after California's groundbreaking Low Carbon Fuels Standard -- with the support of many Republicans. You're seeing a shift. More and more people are realizing that we can both protect the environment and grow our economy, so it's becoming less and less partisan.

SPIEGEL:

Their biggest problem seems to be the president. Bush's approval rates are extremely low -- in the mid-30s, at best. Is his presidency making it difficult for Republican candidates?

SCHWARZENEGGER:

If a Republican president has a low approval rating, that has an effect on the whole Republican Party. But each of the candidates now running has generated excitement on his own merit and record. More important than the president's approval ratings may be whether or not the American people believe this country is headed in the right direction. And polls also show that the American people are not happy with the direction the administration is going. That is not good.

SPIEGEL:

So have the Republicans already lost?

SCHWARZENEGGER:

Oh no. They have as much of a chance to win as the Democrats. They simply have more convincing to do because people may feel like the only way they can change the direction of the country is to change the political party in the White House.

SPIEGEL:

It seems that Americans think this person should be Hillary Clinton. Isn't it difficult to understand why a country that longs for change after 20 years of Bushes and Clintons is about to elect another Clinton?

SCHWARZENEGGER:

It is very easy to understand. A lot of it has to do with name recognition -- Kennedys, Bushes, Clintons. They say, "I have heard that name." But they may have no idea what he stands for or who he is or who she is and what she stands for. When George W. Bush was on the campaign trail in 2000, there were many people at first who thought it was the old Bush who was back. They had no idea it was a new Bush.

SPIEGEL:

So now it's Bill Clinton they are really going for?

SCHWARZENEGGER:

Clinton. They just know the name Clinton, "Yeah, he was good, this Clinton. So let's go with her." It is the same in show business. You may go see a movie with unknown actors but probably only after you've seen a movie that features your favorite star because you believe you'll enjoy it more. You want to recognize the stars.

SPIEGEL:

Will Hillary Clinton win the party's nomination?

SCHWARZENEGGER:

All the indications are there that she may win, but it doesn't mean she will because, as you know in politics, things change from one minute to the next. Events cause voters' priorities to change and so sometimes candidates' support can fluctuate depending on if their record is viewed as strong or weak on those issues.

SPIEGEL:

The same seems to be happening with Hillary Clinton's campaign right now. Barack Obama is seen as a symbol for change and is making a serious comeback. He is often likened to John F. Kennedy. Is that a fair comparison?

SCHWARZENEGGER:

I don't think Obama can be compared to Kennedy, because he has a totally different history, totally different motivations, is a totally different person. But he is new and young and optimistic and he paints a great vision for the future of America. It gives the media an extra story to write about, a good opening line. I think that is really what it comes down to. Either way, if Hillary or Obama secures the nomination, it will be an historic moment in American politics.

SPIEGEL:

Still, even if he is a media darling, can't his novelty and the promise for change he embodies carry him to the White House as it did Kennedy in 1960?

SCHWARZENEGGER:

Don't forget that Kennedy's father helped pave the way for his son to get into the White House. Without him, he probably wouldn't have been there.

SPIEGEL:

Your party makes a big deal out of God and the Bible. Do you pray in office?

SCHWARZENEGGER:

I don't pray in office, but I pray . . . . I would say it is a big mistake if you lead by having God guide you. I think it is important that we recognize there is a God, and I think it is great when someone lives by the Bible. I also think it is great when you have your own religion and you are a religious person. But I think you have got to keep politics and religion as far apart as possible.

SPIEGEL:

You grew up in Austria and you have lived in Germany. How much do you think this experience has helped you in your political career? It is certainly a different biography than most Americans have.

SCHWARZENEGGER:

I would say that you inevitably think more globally about decisions rather than relying solely on an American way of thinking. When you are in the movie business you always need a story for your film to have a universal appeal. That way, you always get the money in and become much more successful financially. I think the same is true in politics. I always check out what the world is doing -- not just the US. For example, I look at what lessons we can learn from Shanghai on port security or what we can learn from the Netherlands on levees. We don't always have to reinvent the wheel.

SPIEGEL:

American presidents haven't always followed that philosophy -- particularly the one currently inhabiting the White House.

SCHWARZENEGGER:

Whether it's for diplomacy or business or even show business, I think it's critical to learn all you can about the countries and cultures you have to interact with. It can be daunting because there is so much to know but it will increase your chance of success every time.

SPIEGEL:

Obama would agree with you. He claims that having lived in Indonesia for a couple of years gives him a good perspective on foreign politics.

SCHWARZENEGGER:

I totally understand that. Living overseas can show you another way of thinking and expose you to new ideas and experiences . . . .

SPIEGEL:

Could you imagine being a cabinet member in a bi-partisan government under Hillary Clinton?

SCHWARZENEGGER:

I work every day with Democrats, and I work every day with Republicans. To me, I don't see a difference. There is a difference in opinions, but I enjoy working with people that have a different opinion than I do because you can get much more accomplished. When you come together with different opinions, different backgrounds, I think you come up with better ideas, and I, for instance, welcome the combination that we have right now in Sacramento with a Democratic legislature and a Republican governor.

This guy is an independent-thinking Republican who would never participate in a Democratic president's cabinet. At the same time, I appreciate his honest perspective. There was a time when we could expect that from Republicans. I look forward to his Democratic successor in Sacramento.

Barack Obama as a Crossover Candidate?

George Will begrudgingly, condescendingly, almost wistfully thinks this 'fired-up and ready to go' presidential aspirant is the first crossover candidate since Reagan.

Will concludes a riff against Shelby Steel's Misreading Obama's Identity:

Obama's candidacy fascinates because he represents radical autonomy: He has chosen his racial identity but chosen not to make it matter much ...

Steele has brilliantly dissected the intellectual perversities that present blacks as dependent victims, reduced to trading on their moral blackmail of whites who are eager to be blackmailed in exchange for absolution. But Steele radically misreads Obama, missing his emancipation from those perversities. Obama seems to understand America's race fatigue, the unbearable boredom occasioned by today's stale politics generally and by the perfunctory theatrics of race especially.

So far, Obama is the Fred Astaire of politics -- graceful and elegant, with a surface so pleasing to the eye that it seems mistaken, even greedy, to demand depth. No one, however, would have given Astaire control of nuclear weapons, so attention must be paid to Obama's political as well as aesthetic qualities.

Steele notes that Obama "seems to have little talent for anger." But that is because Obama has opted out of the transaction Steele vigorously deplores. The political implications of this transcendence of confining categories are many, profound and encouraging.

What does this portend?

Memo to the Occupiers Among Us

The big picture: here's the long and short of it:Before the sand runs through your fingers, click on the map.